Author Archives: Mary Stokes

Brazilian government growth forecast reflects wishful thinking

The Ministry of Finance projects the Brazilian economy will grow by 4.5% this year. The trouble with this forecast is that it increasingly looks out of touch with reality. By way of comparison, the central bank foresees growth of 3.5%, … Continue reading

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Brazil: Is the rise in FDI caused by disguised portfolio investment?

Foreign direct investment (FDI) to Brazil has risen sharply since mid-2010. Some analysts see the increase as evidence that portfolio investment is entering the country disguised as FDI to skirt financial transaction taxes. However, a closer look at the data … Continue reading

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Putting Brazil’s ‘de-industrialisation’ into context

Fears of ‘de-industrialisation’ in Brazil have escalated over the past year, and President Dilma Rousseff has made protecting industry the centerpiece of national policy. Government statements give the impression that the struggles of local manufacturers are a recent phenomenon. However, what … Continue reading

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Brazil’s government extends another helping hand to industry

Domestic industry continues to struggle in Brazil, as output hovers below levels seen before the global financial crisis and below last year’s levels (see chart below). The government views cheap imports as the culprit and has moved to weaken the … Continue reading

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Brazil’s import restrictions: Why policy makers are shooting themselves in the foot

Brazil’s government is increasingly worried about the decline of domestic industry and has leapt to its defence with a battery of measures, including import restrictions. The manufacturing sector is clearly struggling, but import restrictions will have unintended consequences that end … Continue reading

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