The demographic profile of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is unique among emerging market regions. Population trends in these EU newcomers bear a closer resemblance to those in fast-aging Western Europe, as compared to Emerging Asia or Latin America.
The issue goes beyond a mere slowdown in population growth. Many CEE countries have seen an outright decline in the number of people living within their borders over the past decade, and the trend looks set to continue. This puts these economies at a demographic disadvantage relative to other regions whose expanding populations should help underpin their future growth.
CEE Population Trends from Timetric
Bulgaria has experienced the sharpest drop-off in the CEE region, with the population falling by over 8% since 2000. The Baltic countries – Latvia and Lithuania – have also lost large numbers of people. The region’s biggest economy, Poland, has seen its inhabitants decrease from a peak of 38.7 million in 2000 to 38.2 million today.
Emigration has played a role in this demographic decline, but falling birth rates are the main culprit. The Czech Republic and Slovakia stand out as exceptions to the trend given their positive, albeit limited, increases in inhabitants over the past decade.